Financial Markets

2017 Outlook: Part 1 – Another fine mess?

By Paul Gambles, MBMG Investment Advisory

While the election of Donald Trump was a major shock to many people on many levels, much of the shock value relates more to Trump’s own personality, especially the outrageous persona that he has created and developed during the last 2 US Presidential election cycles. Anyone who is totally shocked at the 2016 outcome needs to look back on the populist groundswell that Trump set in motion with the so-called birther movement and other controversies in 2011-2.

2017 Outlook: Part 2 – As you were

 By Paul Gambles, MBMG Investment Advisory

As was the case with 2016, we are in tumultuous times. So how can we navigate these treacherous waters? Some people believe that a permanent structural adjustment took place during the 1970s and 1980s, which justifies the divergence from centuries of data. Personally, I don't – which means that we should expect to see property fall in value by up to 70% while equities fall in value by up to 90%.

2017 Outlook: Part 3 – Kardashian markets

Paul Gambles, MBMG Investment Advisory

In previous decades, it has taken a while for the transitions between the various economic phases to fully eventuate. However, I would contend that the events of 2007-9 could have unfolded at any time from 2005 onwards, had there been suitable exogenous triggers to burst the western debt bubbles.

After Brexit

Prof Robert Anthony’s (Anthony & Cie) point of view

What are the likely consequences of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU from a legislative and trade standpoint?

Brexit – no panic, please

By Prof Dr Teodoro D. Cocca
July 2016

The economic consequences of Brexit for the population of the UK have so far been rather overestimated, while the political ramifications for the EU have arguably been underestimated. Economic horror stories for the UK – of which there are quite a few at the moment – are circulating, although on closer inspection they are not wholly justified.

Brexit and its consequences

Prof Robert Anthony’s (Anthony & Cie) point of view

On 22 April, during U.S. President Barack Obama’s visit to London, he invited the British to reconsider their position on a possible Brexit and to vote to stay in the European Union. His argument was supported by the conclusions of HM Treasury which recently drafted a 200-page report on the disastrous consequences Brexit would have, with GDP falling by 6% by 2030. The Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, goes even further, stating that leaving the EU “would be the most extraordinary self-inflicted wound".

Macron’s Marvellous Medicine

By Prof Robert Anthony and Alexane Palide, Anthony & Cie

Emmanuel Macron’s rise to power on a reforming agenda carries big implications for tax reforms and for the financial sector across Europe. Prof Robert Anthony assesses the likely impact.

Winds of Change

By Miguel Mantelli, GGI

During 12 years of President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner's government and her late husband, President Néstor Kirchner, Argentina isolated the world by nationalising foreign companies, curbing imports and cutting normal ties with the International Monetary Fund. The Kirchners once left behind Carly Fiorina, the then CEO of the American computer giant Hewlett-Packard, when she went to visit them at Government House.

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